9.9.11

2011-2012 NFL Preview -- NFC or: Highway 41 Revisited

NFC North:
Green Bay Packers
Name the last champion who looked this poised to repeat. Since the Pats in 03-04, or what we all remember as the dark times, who has been this scary in the role of conquering hero?

In '05-'06 there was the Colts which...God forgive me, but we all knew that wasn't gonna happen. Then we had the Giants, who won the most important Super Bowl game since Super Bowl III. They forever saved the game of football in a quest my friends and I likened to Lord of the Rings. (Brady-Saruman, Belichick-Sauron, The Pat's D-The Nazgul, Peyton-Gandalf, Rivers-Frodo, and Eli-Samwise...a nickname used to this day. Oh...Goodell was Gollum) But everyone was rooting for the G-Men so hard, and their task so important, their stock was way overblown in the aftermath. Next, the Steelers, and then the first "r" incident happened with Big Ben, and it cast an eerie pallor over the Steelers season. The Saints won the next Super Bowl, and the celebration didn't stop until like week five of the 2010 season. They also managed to make every bad offseason personnel decision possible, so they came in to the season--errr--we'll call it "unfocused".

Now Green Bay. The NFL franchise larger than legend. The small market Hercules casting a shadow over even the largest NFL lore. A young quarterback, the kid chosen over a Packers icon,  who looks to still be approaching the peak of his powers. It's a youth movement on both sides of the ball with just enough veteran leadership to keep the team hungry. Last year's team was good enough to bring the Lomabrdi back to Wisconsin. This year, the Pack get Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant back from inujury, young and scary talent grown-up Green Bay style.

I hate to say it, but I'm intimidated. There appears to be a lot of fuel in the Aaron Rodgers greatness engine designed to erase the Brett Farve memory. If he can bring home back to back championships... Should his statue be at Lombardi's right hand like the Christ child? Can you retire the number of an active player? If he can do that, four might be a number in Green Bay history that just represents how many rings Aaron Rodgers wears.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are now the half-way home for almost out of the league quarterbacks. After the grim end to the Brett Farve experiment--human drama on scale with a Greek tragedy--they've elected Donovan McNabb as signal caller.

This is a quarterback league, it's just a fact. I still believe a superior defense is what will win you the crown, but you have to have a QB that can make plays enough to hang up some Dub's in the regualr season. I've watched Donovan play for years. Donovan has dealt the death blow to the Cowboys more times than I care to count, one wound so deep, I swear to this day it killed my lady relations at the time. There is no question Donovan will be in the HOF conversation every year, and every year teeth will gnash when he doesn't get inducted. Donovan is a great quarterback, but 2005 was a long time ago, and at least an aging Farve came in to Minny with an "I got it done" moment on his resume.

Donovan has a unique advantage playing in Minnesota. 85% of his job is gonna be to hand the rock to Adrian Peterson, and the other 15% will be to dump the ball off to AD in the flat. It's a great gig, and where Donovan's athleticism is buried in an Eagles jersey somewhere under the Schuylkill Expressway, he's got veteran know-how for days. It would be foolish to write off the Vikings. I really like new head coach, and long time Viking assistant coach, Leslie Frazier. AD looks beastly. The Vikings D has somehow been overlooked, the most potent kind of fuel for a talented defense with something to prove. Then there is Donovan...

Last year, the emblem for the Vikings season was the crumbling stadium and the roof piled high with snow that finally gave way. This year, to look to Mall of America Field for inspiration, it's the story of the old patched up building with one last chance and no tomorrow. Donovan is not the quarterback of the future in Minny, and as with the Vikings expiring stadium, the end is nigh. No new stadium, perhaps no more Minnesota Vikings. No anointed franchise quarterback, perhaps not enough wins to garner a new stadium deal. So for now, the Vikings have to settle the matter between the hashes, and hope the old war bird still has a little magic left in her.

Chicago Bears
Do they have any real talent in Chicago? Is Jay "Fussy-Face" Cutler a good quarterback? Is Devin Hester really a multi-dimensional offensive threat? Are you sure you want the hamstring brothers, Matt Forte and Maionr Barber, even touching a football? Is Lovie Smith coach enough to anchor this band of dickish one trick ponies together? Does Mike Martz really really like Roy Williams that much?

Cutler has arm strength for days, and I don't begrudge him last year's NFC championship game, but he's a Grumpasaurus Rex. He may be a good leader, but he's still the emotional and mental equivalent of a twelve year old leading his BMX bicycle gang. You don't have to be charismatic to helm a football team, but you need to be a big boy. Devin Hester is an elite special teams player, and in turn an anti-elite wide receiver. My favorite moment of any fantasy draft is when someone hitches their wagon to that punt and kick return yards Hester star. Their roster spot should just read "future-waiver-wire-request". Lovie Smith has more wins than loses, but more signature losses than signature wins. Mike Martz and Roy Williams...actually, they're perfect for each other.

Every player in Chicago has a talent, and if those singular talents align like the corners of Jay Cutler's expressionless grimace, the Bears will win some football games. If this fast-learning league can turn these handful of individual talents against themselves, Detroit may finally earn that elusive honor of being the second-worst-last team in the black and blue division.


Detroit Lions
By now I'd imagine you've seen these new Chrysler commercials. The ones where a sleek black car slides through a hardened yet reignited Detroit looking to rebound from the scars of modern industries false promises. I really like them. The commercials feature Detroit's current and future stars and go a long way to defy the Detroit "shuttered storefront" image. It's an ad campaign focused around failure and rebirth. The story of a troubled city and her fate intertwined with a troubled industry. A tribute to the hope that even the deepest wounds can be overcome. As an added bonus, the new 300's look strong and reimagined and down right sexy. A gospel choir soars, the gritty hand held images of Detroit are intercut with vibrant citizens who refuse to succumb, and then they hit you with the tag "Imported from Detroit". The first time, I had to suppress an emotional response, but when those vague flashes of human feelings peel back, I mean...it's still a Chrysler.  

There is a lot going for the Motown young talent jamboree. It's not quite Barry Gordy bringing David Ruffin into a little white house on Grand Blvd to record with the Temptations, but there is a lot to feel good about. The hellish Matt Millen era, a tyrannical reign that makes adjectives like Pol-Pot-esque seem kind, is finally over. A lot of young talent perished in the Millen-ing, but Marty Mayhew is here to set right what once went wrong. Ndamukong Suh is a defensive phenom. Calvin Johnson, or "Megatron," is grown man enough to shoulder one of the best nicknames in the NFL. I still don't think Stafford is the guy. He's talented, but his shoulder appears to be made out of baby kisses, and you've got to have more stank than that to make it in this league.

It's all high-fives and sunshine, right? Well...when you have to matchup with two of the NFL's top ten offensive talents four times a year, that doesn't help. The non-divisionals this year are the hyper-competitive NFC South and an improved AFC West. They still have to play the Cowboys every year who, no matter how bad the Boys are, they cant seem to beat. About the time Joe Buck, in his almost "I'm not at the game," delivery says "And here comes Shaun Hill," well...you Detroit fans know the rest of the story. I see six wins, and as long as the Detroit front office doesn't get all knee-jerky, there is a bright future in Detroit. Much improved, but...you know...it's still the Lions.

NFC bEast:
Philadelphia Eagles
You see that right there? It's a token gesture. F*ck the Eagles...really. If this was an organization with stones enough to win a Super Bowl, they would have done it already. Sure, I'm clearly way too biased to provide any impartial insights into the Iggs, but I do no know a thing or two about a team with too much talent.

As a whole, Adult Swim delivers the most inspired block of original programming on television. Yeah...HBO's got stuff, and AMC is trying super hard, but Adult Swim is the city on the hill. Superjail, Delocated, and Metalocalypse are three off the six shows I follow, and when I follow, I do it like a dude with a restraining order. The crown jewel in the Adult Swim's repertoire, Venture Bros., is the most important my favorite show on television. That's a pretty heavy set of four original shows, but a few great programs isn't what sets Adult Swim apart. Good or bad--and there have been unspeakable crimes--they dare to take risks, and an unfettered creative effort reflects in the final product. There have been plenty of "weird for the sake of weird" arguments, with varying degrees of merit, but when the pure artistic endeavor shines through, it's brilliant. Brilliant in the way when that word used to mean something--a beacon.

So you have this amazing network, right? Then you hear that there is going to be a show with...Dudes from The State! And Rob Corrdry! And Henry Winkler! And Malin Akerman! And Megan Mullally! And shitloads of celebrity cameos! On paper, it's perfection. It's like a show that's been un-funny proofed. There could be no script, one hand held camera, and this cast, this collection of rouge comedy man-boy-god-children, could make comedy gold. Actual gold spun from hay like Rumpelstiltskin and Cartoon Network get's to charge by the minute. But instead, it's just...meh.

Meh is the only word for it. It's a deep and sorrowful meh, cut with potent ennui, but it's no better than a "meh". Oversold intention, too many wayward never-beens popping in for hollow cameos, unrealized ideas, a lack of direction, and most damning of all, it's not funny. The show is treacly and sigh inducing. It has nothing to do with the content--there may be no place funnier than a children's hospital--it's simply too much talent.

It's a strange, counter-intuitive phenomenon, but there is no cure. The '03-'04 Lakers, Ocean's 12, the '08 Cowboys, Beat the Devil, the '10-'11 Miami Heat. Go back and read the previous two paragraphs. Insert Jeff Lurie, Andy Reid, Battle Damage Vick, Nnamdi, Ronnie Brown,  and  Cullen Jenkins where appropriate, and ask yourself....is that it? Is this really going to be my boring prediction? As me and my roommate have come to oft quote, heads shaking, while Children's Hospital promos play, "Pssshhh...Just too much talent".

Dallas Cowboys
Hey Silver and Blue...it's me again.

Yeah, I know it's been awhile, but if you ask anyone I know, I talk about you all the time.

I'm just gonna come out and say it. Last year was tough. After a summer visit to Canton to see Emmitt go into the HOF and knowing our home super bowl was on the horizon, I expected too much. I know, I ran out on you for two weeks and I wasn't there when you needed me most. Do you think I wanted to find out about Tony in some Internet Cafe in Pondicherry? Of course not. But to come home and find you in that state with the Packers, face-down-ass-up, I was humiliated. The dream was dead.

Wade was gone the next morning.  His lasting impression in my life? I gave a friend money for his wedding and it in some way contributed to his new HDTV. His thank you card featured a hand made picture of a Smurf taking Wade Phillips from behind. Thanks for all the memories, StayPuft. I hadn't felt this bad about a season in my entire life. Even the back to back 5-11 seasons had some continuity and there were memories of Super Bowl glory clear in our minds. (Cause Cowboys fans do not live in the past) This team wasn't supposed to suck. This was our champion and the fall wasn't even heroic enough to be a tragedy. No focus, no discipline, not even a scintilla of grit. I need to say it. You hurt me. In a real way. But I want the healing to begin.

You know what I realized the other day? 20 years me and you. Yup...you've been in my life for two decades and we'll make this thing work. Cause that's what a you-and-me do. You've made some tough choices. Marion wore The Star with pride and well...I don't think we need to talk about this whole Roy Williams thing. It's in the past, and we're moving forward together. Order and discipline seem to be the call of the day at Valley Ranch. This year's draft was savvy if no sexy. Look, I know Jerry is...he's Jerry, but I believe you've changed. I really think things are gonna be different this time.

We've learned so much. There has been so much growth as we continue on our journey. As tough as times get, there is no obstacle that could ever drive us apart. I probably sound like a mixed up kid wearing his Dallas Cowboys 1992 Super Bowl Championship tee for the first time, but I couldn't think of my life without you. Because after all these years I've come to realize, I'm glad I just get to watch you play. Oh, and no pressure...but I've got my on #88 colored glasses and I'm looking to anoint a certain red-head head coach "future legend". Here's to twenty more years.

+always and forever

New York Giants
Somewhere between a shoulder shrug and a knee-jerk reaction, the Giants might destroy themselves this year. It's a strange era of "win now" football when a coach and a quarterback who won a Super Bowl together less than four years ago are perpetually on the hot seat. The G-Men have had some tough years since the big win, but the real problem when the Giants lose, is they lose ugly.

Ask a casual fan what Giant's game they remember from last year, and I'd wager Osi Umenyiora's non-existent contract that they'd mention the Eagle's 28 point come back with eight minutes left in the game. It was a like train wreck having a feverish nightmare. These moments  alone are enough to tear a franchise's guts out. To compound the problem, NYG fans have to live through these moments, look on the sideline, and find Eli with his left hand hooked in his shoulder pads, mouth agape, doing his weird shoulder-shrug-tick thing.

It's maddening, I know. My quarterback wears a backwards baseball cap, but lest the Jints fans and front office forget...this is a quarterback and coach that won a Super Bowl together four years ago! Not just any Super Bowl mind you, but a Super Bowl they had no business winning. A game that will be regarded as a great American classic for all time. The story of Super Bowl XLIV will be a Disney movie someday. A victory like that doesn't buy a coach and QB a lifetime, but it would be an interesting comment on the state of the modern game if it only bought a coach four more years, a stint that includes another playoff run and a divisional title.

Revisionist history is this sort of magic salve that can gloss over even the closest memories. In the Giants run to SB XLIV, they were the most unimpressive ten win team I've ever seen, yet they got it done. I'm not sure how the Giants being just sucky enough to be great has been clouded by this notion they are a gridiron juggernaut being destroyed by Tom and Eli, but these are the slings and arrows of round the clock sports in a large media market.

This year is gonna be tough. The Giants' secondary is decimated and their offensive line is in transition, and it could possibly spell the end for Coughlin. Personally, I trust the Mara's slightly more than that, but if it all goes down, what an alarming precedent. It's not that I care. I'm not invested in the Giants doing well, but who would they rather have as head coach? It doesn't really matter, and it may not be this year, but what a strange and sad day in the NFL when winning cures everything but winning.      

Washington Redskins
Oh...there's still a team in DC? Woof!

What else do you want me to say? When the headlines out of Washington are "Grossman to start over Beck," and "Santana Moss signed to a three year deal at 15 million," you expect me to take that seriously?

Ugh. Daniel Snyder you just keep on digging. God bless your stupid face.

NFC South:
New Orleans Saints
For my money, or my friend who paid for NFL Sunday ticket's money, I think the NFC South is far and away the most compelling division in the NFL this year. The South is comprised of a recent Super Bowl champion, two teams helmed by young, and special, quarterback talent, and Carolina is home to the Cam Newton experiment or what we'll refer to as "Who wants Ron Rivera to be their defensive coordinator?"
Brees is like a rock, and I think he's poised for a good year. In a personal aside, he's an Austin kid made good and he owns a Jimmy Johns franchise. I also like how much he talks shit to the man. He did some grade 'A' jawing during the lockout. Solid Dude. Sean Payton is a dynamic leader and ranks among the best coaches in the NFL. Men of this caliber in those critical positions, I think New Orleans can overcome the lack of impact talent. I really don't like the depth at receiver. Between Moore's hammy, Meacham's ankle, and old glass tendons Colston there is like one functioning leg in that WR corps. Other than Jimmy Graham, a TE with breakout potential, it's hard to tell who is going to score points for Saints. New Orleans' secret salvation this year will have to be the run game.

Pierre Thomas might be the most underrated back in the NFL. The last three years, behind Reggie Bush and out with injury, he's gone for almost 2500 combined yards and 22 touchdowns. Wee-ow. With Bush out of the way, he could have a great year. He had some crazy ankle problems last year, but he's very quietly one of the most reliable backs around. Darren Sproles is a huge x-factor, as he's what Reggie Bush would be, if he were talented. Also, if this much ballyhooed Mark Ingram--whose convict father is pen pals with Suzy Kolber--can deliver the goods, the Saints could be deadly.

The games in this division could come down to a handful of possessions and for now I'm putting my money on #9. If these teams can rise to the occasion, the NFC South could hang in the balance until the end of the season. Brees has proven he can do more in these moments with even less talent. I think the Saints will win this division, but a play here and a breakout young star there, the race is wide open.

Hooray. Hooray for football.


Atlanta Falcons
Is this whole Matt Ryan thing starting to whiff of Peyton-esque? Since day one, he's been preened to be a number one draft pick, and he plays like one. Matt Ryan's first NFL possession was a touchdown pass. He took a shell shocked Falcons franchise and erased the ugly memories of the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal. Since taking over at quarterback, Matt Ryan has averaged 3354 passing yards per season, and each year he's thrown six more touchdowns than the year before. (16, 22, 28...crazy, right?) He has lead the Falcons to one division title, and two playoff appearances. Matty Ice has a bunch of neat merit badges on his sash, but much like Sheriff Manning before him, the big moment eludes him.

Lemme lay some real shit on you. Peyton made the playoffs two of his first three years in the league and lost in the first round both attempts. Matt Ryan, like some tiny carbon copy,  has followed that exact path. They are both super white and toothy and dangerous football minds. I'm not saying Matt will do as well as Peyter. Manning's body of work is untouchable. Though I will say with confidence, this is the last year that Matt Ryan will escape the first round of you fantasy draft...or, if you've gotten you shit together, he'll be a 25% of your budget prospect. If he doesn't play all 16 games, pass for 4000+ yards, and make the playoffs, I'll hire Mike Smith...who is not the guy. He's the Mora to Peyton's Dungy. And to revisit this flimsy and protracted analogy, I don't think he'll win that playoff game.

Yes. Peyton got his. It was an Odyssean effort, and Super Bowl XLI is no great American classic. Look, my guy is the realness, but the Colts have lost seven of their first round playoff games under Peyter in eleven attempts. I'm not saying anything, but I'm just saying. Right now Ryan seems to be of that same make. They are football mortals. They represent the best of the game, but that are bound to their flaws. It's a beautiful dynamic. All those years I referred to Peyton Manning as the poor man's Y.A. Tittle, it wasn't a dig that he lacked a championship. It's that he was a hard worker and tough leader...without a championship. It's not your time yet Matthew Ryan. I need to see you throw away a couple of 13-3 seasons first. But  someday, when you're all growns up, you can be as human as YA Tittle, too.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I've been trying to put together a rational idea for why I love this team so much, but that's what it is. It's irrational. They are the new badasses of NFL High School. The Steelers and Ravens are just scary and mean. The Pats are total snobs, and I'm not into that shit. The Colts are down, but I don't wanna spend all of my time in the FFA parking lot. The Raiders are like those weird skeevy dudes you score shit from, but that's not...that's not a true friend. The Cowboys are like the worst of the douche bag rich kids, but, uh....five Super Bowls, bitches. The Buccaneers? They're the lost boys from Hook, and I wish I could be their friend.

Josh Freeman, total Rufio, is the leader of this rag-tag bunch of kids out to challenge the old guard. They're scoring touchdowns. They're winning games. They just don't give. a. fuck. The Buccs laid bets on an unsafe number of risky prospects, including 34 year old head coach Raheem Morris, and got paid out in platinum bricks of swag. The first year was brutal. Now, they have a badass tree fort filled with swashbucklers. Tampa went from a three win season to a ten win season and still missed the playoffs. Raheem Morris calls the condition "Yongry".

It took a couple of clicks to find, and I know it's like four minutes long, but this clip embodies everything I want to say about the Bucc's season this year. It's something about high expectations, invisible food, a little imagination, and becoming a better person...but to be honest, part of me just hopes this is what meal time is like in Tampa every night. Bangarang!



Carolina Panthers
Two high draft picks in as many years used on quarterbacks. A new coach who learned the 3-4 from Wade Phillips and came out Norv Turner's coaching tree. An owner, one of the most powerful in the NFL, who will do anything to help himself win and almost nothing to help his team win. It's starting to read like the voice over to this fall's madcap yet feel good sports movie, but I don't think a cardboard cut-out of a naked Jerry Richardson is enough to pull this shit sandwich together.

Cam Newton is not smart enough to figure out how to make his gifts work in the NFL. Being an athletic freak is simply not enough. In fact, Vince Young's zombified football corpse does a ten-part lecture series on the topic at Philly's community college. Ron Rivera is a hack. His most famous pupil was outed as a juicer whose talent disappeared in lock step with each future drug test. Jerry Richardson feasted for years on the chicken salad that John Fox and Matt Delhomme made from chicken shit. Now, he's scrambling to find a "get" and it makes me wonder if he's handed down the decision to start Cam Newton just to put asses in seats.

I'd be satisfied to wish for the worst in Carolina this year, but my heart breaks for Steve Smith. He's a wonderful talent and hard worker and the sort of hopeless head case that makes my heart whimper. I wish he could find a better day, or that the Panthers would end their ceaseless punishment for his hard work and release him, but that's not how this story goes. It'll be one more wasted year in Carolina, and somewhere, James Taylor plays a song that my beloved Steve Smith would cry himself to sleep to every night. And not in a good way, in that like ironic/suicide note way.


NFC West:


I'll do ten thoughts and no more because I hate this division with my whole heart.
1) The Rams shit the bed less than everyone else this season adn win the division. Congrats. Also, "shit the bed less than everyone else," should be the phrase on the NFC West's family crest.

2) I can't believe the Eagles got to pull the old bait-and-Cassel on the Cards. Sure, Kevin Kolb was one auspicious start away from his first auspicious start, but Michael Vick was a revelation, so surely he's a blue chip. That logic is air tight.

3) I think Sam Bradford is a hot house flower. You look in his past, and when the lights shine bright, this tulip is wiltin'.

4) Seattle and San Francisco know they both can't have Andrew Luck, right?

5) I mean...but Tavaris Jackson and Alex Smith. What the f*ck is that? It has to be against the rules to try and lose on purpose.

6) Danny Amendola! A division is only as good as it's shiftiest shifty white guy. Congrats NFC West, you've taken one step in the right direction.

7) $21 Million for a sixth year running back who has played one complete season in his entire career is like wifing a 20,000 scene pornstar and then insisting she decides the terms of the pre-nup. I swear, the 49ers are breaking there necks to be the worst team in the NFL. Don't over sell it, we want to try to not believe it's true.

8) You wanna know how much TV I watch? SJax has a Dick's Sporting Goods commercial that totally rips an idea from a local grocery store ad starring Tim Duncan. I won't link to it because I'm embarrassed that I know this, but you know....it's the NFC West the rest of the way out...I've gotta find something to talk about.

9) Or the number of wins the division champion might aspire to this year, a lofty aspiration it is indeed, but more realistically, the number of losses the division champ can have and still make the playoffs.
10) L Fitz got paid! Enjoy being the best player in the worst division for the next five years. And who says there are no moral victories?

All that being said, it's still football time and not even the NFC West can take that away from us. Grab your friends, ignore your families, drink before Noon. Life is worth living again, and I don't want Bart Scott's image management people to come after me, but I can't wait. Happy football everyone!



8.9.11

2011-2012 NFL Preview -- AFC or: How I learned to stop worrying, and love the Tom

There are sixteen weeks a year when I don't have to fake it, and this is my love song to that wonderful, glorious time. It looks like we made it. It's football time. I ordered the teams by how I think they'll finish in their division. This is part one of two. Part two will be up Friday. Will the season have already started? I don't claim to be perfect...

AFC East
New England Patriots --
It's a curious thing when in the wake of the NFL Hungry-Hungry-Hippos style free agency grab, Bob Kraft, Chad Ochocinco, and 1950's French suspense film end up together in the same thought space like a hideous Venn diagram.

Undoubtedly, the Pats are the master artisans of transforming NFL garbage into a trash cathedral. New England boasts a sterling record of restoring long forgotten greatness to the NFL's most toxic damaged goods. Turn Chernobyl over to the Pats front office, and they'll have that thing Starbucks-ed and Condo-ed in three months...tops. It's a mystery how it works. I've always wondered if the Corey Dillon thing was an accident, and as a result every washed up NFL no-good-nik believes NE is a true clean slate. Maybe it's the food, a subject Randy Moss--basically an orphan who got too attached to his foster family only to realize they were there to help him, not love him. Wicked sad--is very passionate about. Maybe, and I know it's a stretch, but maybe the Pats just know what they are doing, which is why this recent turn gives me pause.

Lord knows I count the minutes to Ocho's annual melt-down-a-thon, and Albert Haynesworth is a terrible person, like...a vintage piece of shit, but even for New England, it seems like a reach. No two head cases define all that is despicable about NFL millionaire man children than this motley pair. Ocho is like a six year old who wants something so bad, when it's out of his grasp, his only emotional language is temper tantrum. I'm taking the under on week six for when the Pats have to start using a little kid leash just to keep Chad in check. Haynesworth...well I don't know if face stomper, waitress groper, road rager, and all around malingerer are the resume builders you're looking for in starting DT, but sounds like champion material to me.

These moves are eerie. They creep me out. It's as though some Pats clone wearing an evil twin beard made these acquisitions. It all makes sense, but the risk senseless. This go round, the dangerous mix of ego and ambition, the unbecoming sense of an overplayed hand, the analogy practically writes itself.

Wages of Fear is a 1953 French thriller that did white knuckle before color film. Equal parts suspense and satire, this Cluzot film tells of the lengths risk takers will go to get a job done. A fools cargo, a pass too treacherous to pass, and a crew of men cast off from the societies they've left behind. The absurd, tragic, and sublime are held in volatile balance as the best of these men is tested. The prize is worthy, but the journey is long, and a truck packed with nitroglycerin forgives few mistakes.

I won't spoil the end, but you're welcome Pats fans. Ask for the Criterion version for Christmas. It'll all make sense by then.    


New York Jets --
There is no team that looks like a bona fide contender more shrouded in mystery. I mean...if the Sanchize hit the open market today and your team picked him up, how excited would you be? When your number one receiver is Santonio Holmes, and your other receiver is billed as "this year's Santonio," is that a warm fuzzy? Do you really know what was lost in the 15 million plus the Jets had to shed in salary cap? Was anyone happy when they picked up Shonn Greene in your league's fantasy draft? Are you one of Antonio Cromartie's nine kids? I think this is a ten to eleven win team, but I don't have answers to, or feel good about any of those questions. It's like a zen koan wrapped in a riddle bundled in uncertainty, and since I don't have any real predictions, I'm gonna be a dick about it and write haiku. Get it? Cause it's smart... (Oh, and on the peeps, my kigo and kireji are totally on point. Drop that shit on the boring girl you're trying to fingerblast who "loves poetry". No. Big. Deal.)

A football season in four haiku:

winters bone shattered
by bullets path cut anew
redemption revealed

the color of spring
frailest youth frocked in proud green
some roots take, many fail

unyielding, summer
immovable sun to shine
defense against dark

fall foliage bluster
heavy sounds on silent air
hide the shaking leaf

Buffalo Bills --
Chan Gailey and I have a ...complicated relationship. He, fairly or unfairly, is remembered as the man who destroyed the empire. When he was hired in Buffalo, the Siberian gulag of the NFL, Memaw King described him as "The man you hire when you're going out of business". But an Ivy League quarterback and a WR that blames dropped passes on God later, that was one watchable four win team. So yeah, the win-loss column doesn't tell many lies, but there are some finite details lost in the black and white.

Of the Bills 12 losses (oof), 6 were decided by one score or less. I don't know what it's like. I can't grasp the pain of not only waking up in Buffalo everyday, but having to go to work for Ralph Wilson, and those kids were sold out every Sunday. From the outset Gailey said he was gonna do it "his way". As much as that seems like code talk for "take a three time Super Bowl winning behemoth and destroy them," he's stayed away from toxic, over the hill free agents, focused on hard work, and with the close aid of new GM Buddy Nix to put together a provocative youth movement.

Will they be the last place team in the AFC East again? It seems as sure as a 25 point loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XXVII, but winter is coming, and there is talk of white walkers in the north. (#GoT) That and Miami is going to be f*cking terrible.

Miami Dolphins --
Black coffee on an empty stomach and the Fins depth chart makes for a punishment unkind to even the lowest toilet.

Booing the already fragile  4th year QB in preseason practice. Longing for the days when Chad Pennington was working on his second  'Come Back Player of the Year' award (<---- which I cannot articulate the sort of left handed compliment bukkake that sentence adds up to). Channing Crowder retires. Jason Taylor unretires. Brandon Marshall is seeking treatment for borderline personality disorder. Reggie Bush...


It's like the football version of Hurricane Andrew, just funnier...and more forgettable. Put on those #13 jerseys and dust off your favorite brown paper bags...it's football time in South Florida!

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers --
The fear clutched my chest as I flew awake. An icy sickness hung on my neck. As I pulled the sheets down from my mind, one thought persisted in my mind. On Madden 2012, when the Steelers are down, Troy Polamalu plays harder. A thoughtful and subtle touch that reinforces my worst fears. The Steelers are my nightmare. A black and gold phantasm impossible to kill and forever lurking in the shadows. It's not enough for them to be villains, I fear them because they are villains with a plan. For almost five uninterrupted decades, the Steelers have managed to take a band of human monsters, point them in the same direction, and win.

After garbage can, what's the second term you use to describe the Steelers? Big Ben? Even if the rape thing had never happened, I still wouldn't like that dude. I can see every kid he bullied in junior high etched into his sociopathic face. James Harrison? He is a dangerous person. All snark removed, I have grave concerns he'll take a human life someday, and it won't be on the football field. Hines Ward? Not just a cheap shot artist, but making the cheap shot an art form since 1998.  Oh, and hey...HinesBrett Keisel. One fedora per crew. And Ryan Clark? That guys Twitter feed cloggery is crime enough. These clowns are lucky they have peace warrior Polamalu there to answer the door when the cops show up.


But as much as I hate, and that belies the sentiment, the Steelers organization is like a rock. The seamless transition from one Super Bowl winning coach to another to yet another is outside the realm of possibility. The Rooney family seems cool as hell. I really like head coach Mike Tomlin. Last year at Canton, I felt honored to get to see Dick "I have the entire 'Night Before Christmas' memorized" LeBeau inducted into the Hall of Fame. The Steelers are assholes, but they are assholes with a voice, an identity, and desire. It's redundant to speak of the Steelers as a contender, but that combination will always make for daunting opposition.

Baltimore Ravens --
I'm a defense first guy. It's one thing to make an argument, but I admire the refutation of an argument so much more. Over the past decade, few organizations represent the power of that refutation more than the Baltimore Ravens. Not only is BMore (that's what we call it on the streets) the hardest city in the States, name another city thuggish-ruggish-bone enough to make their team name a literary reference? I was a huge fan of the New England 'To The Lighthouses', but we all knew it wouldn't stick.

The only downside of a decade of greatness is it's ten years long. Men who slugged out those ten years on the gridiron wear those battle scars. The Ravens know these consequences. The pieces of an offensive revolution appear to be in place for the sad, sad day when "All about tha U" legends Ed Reed and Ray Lewis hang up their cleats, but that makes for a critical nexus. This year is the the second of maybe four - five tops - "this year is the year" years the Ravens have left.

Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are on a team that wins. They help win games, but it's hard to say if they are good ball players. It's a vast improvement over the ghouls on Baltimore's offensive side of the ball in years past, but the D still carries the purple and black banner. It's time for the leap. I want Joe Flacco to get made fun of as much as Eli Manning when he calls himself an elite quarterback. I want Ray Rice to seem worth 25% of a fantasy team budget. If the offense can match their climb with the defense's gradual decline, this year will be magic in Baltimore. Because after that defense is gone, the only peer to the Steelers juggernaut, rebuilding a squad like that could take another decade. To find another #52 could take a franchise lifetime. I'm not even hack enough to piece it together, but some sort of terrible "Nevermore" allusion should be here. Do your own, I'll leave a space.

Cleveland Browns --
January 7th, 2010 is a sports memory which holds a place so unhappy and bizarre in my recollection, it almost breaches into the surreal. Colt McCoy was the winningest QB in all of NCAA history. He held the NCAA record for highest single season completion percentage, a galling 76.7%. The guy clutched it out in big game after big game and helmed the greatest Red River Shootout victory of my lifetime. #12 was total class. Then the big night, with the world looking in, life happened all over that kid's shoulder, and four years of impeccable work was incinerated.

Colt McCoy went to the Browns in the 3rd round with the 85th pick of the 2010 NFL draft. At the end of training camp, there was a lot of strong chatter out of Cleveland that the McCoy wasn't gonna make it in the NFL. To pile it on, there was word he might even get cut before the regular season. He made the roster as the third quarterback and when the two men before him went down to injury, Colt got out there and did what he'd always done, win football games. Two to be exact. He lost five others, and got injured in week 11 and missed three games, but as with all good 85th pick legends, there's gonna be a trial here and a tribulation there.

Like a typical University of Texas fan, I lack a little perspective, but that kid is a winner. Cleveland isn't there yet. The Browns will be the third best team in a savage division but...Peyton "White Thunder" Hillis and the small blonde kid from Texas with the football name...then I tell you they got the NFC West draw?! Shiiiiiiit. You just need the 'fidence.



Cincinnati Bengals --
There is a Japanese novel from 1962 called Woman in the Dunes. The book had a second, and far more relevant life as a Japanese art house film, but the internet cut me break. Wikipedia says it was a book first, so I don't have to lay two art house cinema references on you in one NFL blog post, and still look my self in the mirror. Everyone wins....except, of course, the Bengals.

As the story goes, there is a young entomologist sent to the dunes in search of a rare beetle. His work complete and snared in one of those missed-the-last-bus setups, he's invited by the villagers to stay the night. When bedtime arrives, they send him down a rope ladder (uhhhhh) into a pit (...wait) where a young widow (how young?) lives alone (grep).

Come morning, to your utter shock, the ladder is gone. He is sentenced to a life forever digging the hole deeper into the sand. After that, he and the widow run a pretty typical relationship model. He tries to escape. He takes her hostage. The usual stuff. On the eve he does escape, unfamiliar with the hidden dangers of the desert, he becomes trapped in quicksand. The villagers find him, and return him to the widow. At last, resigned to his fate, he accepts his life forgotten in the sand.

Thanks, Carson Palmer, it's been neat. Oh, and hey, Andy Dalton. No...you're totally good. Just go down the ladder...

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts --
Of all of the football privileges I've enjoyed over the years, there are few that I treasure more than Brady vs. Manning. When the dust settles, I believe this will be one of the signature story lines in all of NFL history. I've always been firmly in the Manning camp. Among the many reasons I love old Peyter, he's unattractive and square jawed and drawls in long southern tinged quips. A future 1st round pick, he grew up enjoying the charmed life of NFL royalty. Peyton was put on this earth to not to simply play football, but be a quarterback. Since then, 4000+ passing yards in ten of twelve NFL seasons. 4 NFL MVP's, 1 Super Bowl MVP, and the big fat ring that goes with it. The T-1800 is some sort of football robot we may never see the likes of again. That, and he's like my 4th favorite actor. (Someday I will make a version of King Lear with Archie and the three Manning boys.)

The Tom Brady story should appeal to my underdog bias. 6th round pick, all hard work and hustle. A modicum of humility coupled with gridiron excellence. His pregnant, and super hot, actress wife he dumped for his future supermodel wife. It's perfect, it's all there, but I couldn't forgive "the tuck". I know he didn't make the call, but the better team got robbed that night. Tom became my scapegoat. For years, the vitriol was pungent, but as with all betrayals of the competitive spirit, there must penance. A perfect season erased from memory by the most improbable play in one of the greatest Super Bowls of all time reduced him to fallen God. A knee injury in the first game of the next season made him just a man. After that, I learned to love old Tommy B. The scope of his greatness finally occurred to me. My view unclouded, I was ready to appreciate one of the most elegant quarterbacks I've ever seen win the game -- and win he has indeed.

Those paragraphs might ring with a sense of finality--and I'm sure Bryn ColtsFan is filled with murderous rage as to why I've cluttered #18's turf with such unseemly Brady love--but I sense an era slipping through our fingers. An era typified by two players whose stories can't exist without the other. Peyton and Tom are going to play this year and hang up numbers and make the playoffs, but the peak is behind us. I don't worry about Tom, he'll know when to walk away. As Peyton was put on this earth to play football, he'll hang on far too long. I think the NFL should create a rule that Tom and Peyton have to retire the same year so we can go to the best HOF weekend since Rice and Smith went in, but alas, somethings are too beautiful for this world...

Oh, my analysis? The Colts will win the AFC South if Peyton starts 9 games....which he'll start 16 errr...15 games. He'll start 15, right? You owe me a nickel.

Houston 8-8's --
There is nothing that makes me happier than the Texans year long march toward mediocrity. I still remember when they won 9 games in 2009, totally missed the playoffs, and then actually popped actual champagne bottles in the locker room. The head coach and the owner shared a tearful embrace like they were about to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The next year they offset that excellence with six wins which brings their W/L average after five seasons under Gary Kubiak to an august 7.4 wins and 8.6 losses. Let's just split the difference and call it 8-8, because I'm kind in that way. Though there is something to be said for consistency.

So how will they do it this year? Will it be a week one pantload setting the table for a meaningless year-end three game win streak into 8-8? Perhaps a week one win over the Colts sending the hype machine into a "this year is the year" fueled frenzy? How many times will the phrase "Garsh!" be uttered by dough boy/retread D-coordinator Wade Phillips as he looks on befuddled? When will Schaub's most tragic, game destroying INT be? When the despair and frustration set in, will we get Andre Johnson vs. Cortland Finnegan II, "The Redeathening"?

I'm so effing excited I can almost taste the pedestrian performances as real as Chinese buffet food. Find a Texans fan and have them tell you about the coming season. It's like watching a six year old tell a joke. Precious. You'll hear a jumbled mass of 3-4, Arian Foster, and Brian Cushing, followed with a heavy dose of Andre Johnson. All roads lead to Andre, and as with any irony worth its salt, it's appropriate. Down in Houston the combination that makes the money go is Schaub to Andre. Or as fate would have it, #08 to #80.

Tennessee Titans --
Bud Adams: What school's he from, again?

Tennessee GM: (measured) he's from...the University of Washington, Bud.

His eyes widen pushing his white cowboy hat to the crest of his bald head.

Bud Adams: That's where Warren went to school, right?

He whips around the room looking for a response. Faces both sullen and afraid meet his glance.

Tennessee GM: (defeated) Yeah Bud, that's where Warren went to school.

Bud Adams: Well shit, that's who I want. They both went to Washington, get me? Makes perfect damn sense.

And with the 8th pick of the 2010 draft the Tennessee Titans select Jake Locker! And hey, I'm not knocking on the kid, I just think it's stupid.

Jacksonville Jaguars --
If a football game is played, and no one is there to watch it...has the game been played at all? We'll find out at least six times this year. And please, for the sake of aesthetic value, change the logo and color scheme when you move the team.

AFC West

LA San Diego Chargers --
The longer the lockout went on, the longer I had to stay away from football, and important details fell from my memory. I didn't forget that San Diego had a team, per se, but you can imagine my shock when I found out/re-remembered that Norv Turner was their coach. I know, even reading it there it seems totally implausible, but I promise it's true.

It's the "she's still with that guy?" phenomenon. Norv seems like a solid dude: top-rated offense and defense last year, four consecutive AFC West championships, a neck that looks like a scrot, but his jib is cut all sorts of crazy wrong. He's got those weird James Woods pock marks that I perhaps unfairly characterize him by, but there is a hole in the Chargers resolve. Year after year, the same results eventually have to be traced back to the vision's engineer.
You totally see it...
So the Chargers are about to undergo one of my favorite break-up chrysalises of all. The season will fall just short again. Phillip Rivers and VJax can only be expected to do so much, and the rest of the team might as well be dubbed ? and The Mysterians. If you wanna take that riff to it's illogical conclusion--You San Diego fans are gonna need a lot more than 96 tears. Boom. Anyway, after a prolonged breakup, fraught with what might have beens, the Chargers will do what so many who couldn't escape a bad boyfriend have done before them--dump his ass and move to LA.



Oakland Raiders --
"For 20 years, I've asked dozens of insiders, including commissioners, owners, and those I felt had accurate inside information: 'What is the Raiders succession plan? Who will own and run the team when (or maybe, if) Al Davis dies?' No one has the answer. Even people who like to brag that they're wired on the inside can't give me an answer."
--Al Michaels, sportscaster extraordinaire/hair enthusiast 


Kansas City Chiefs --
I hope Todd Haley drives a Ford F-250 with a minimum of six tires. In my dreams, it has glasspacks. A lifted frame holds the body up like some god swaddled in a Kansas City Chiefs truck wrap. One mudflap reads, "Go Chiefs." The other reads, "Don't let me f*cking break you!!" I know it's a far off wish, but if the NFL's great compensator drives a Prius to work, I can't live in that world.

Todd Haley is the infamous tough guy who couldn't bust a grape in a fruit fight. I've stepped over tougher guys than Todd Haley running away from said fight. He yells and growls and stalks the sidelines like el commandante, but it's all so paper tiger.  He's a cartoon of a football coach that exists in some naive Bill Parcells fantasy. It's okay to be tough, but his demeanor is not that of a leader. Lest we revisit the handshake debacle of November 2010, his freak-outs on the sideline don't reflect the behaviors of a guy worthy of leadership. Where's the poise? Why do I need to be convinced you care? What are you overcompensating for?

I'll take a stab. Todd never played college ball or in the NFL, so maybe it's the only way he can prove he's tough enough. It's a little one-dimensional, but it works. It could be a little Scott Pioli inferiority, as Pioli brought all this talent to KC yet Haley seems the buffoon who can't put it together. And KC does have talent. Cassel isn't the guy, sorry Chiefs fans, but the number of exciting young prospects on this team should buoy even the faintest hope. So where does that leave Todd Haley? I think he's compensating for the fact that he's not a good coach, and his team mirrors those frailties. Last year, come big boy football time, the Chiefs crumbled like an insecure, irrational, half-man built on phony gusto. Where'd they learn that stuff? To quote the immortalized words of the greatest PSA ever made: "You, alright! I learned it by watching you!"

Denver Broncos --
Let shoddy "the last hot shot QB from Stanford the Broncos landed was a guy named John Elwayne" comparisons begin. And by begin, I mean destroy Andrew Luck.